Multiple Pathways to Graduation:

Using Data to Understand Target Populations

The cities successfully shaping Multiple Pathways to Graduation are using data about students to drive their decision making process. Data segmentation can accurately identify which groups of students are most likely to fall off track to graduation, and how and why it happens. With this kind of knowledge, districts can begin to shape effective plans and policies that increase graduation rates.

Each school district has its own context requiring a custom approach to data segmentation. Each of the cities below committed to the goal of increasing graduation rates, but approached the process in different ways.

New York City

New York City established the Office of Multiple Pathways to Graduation (OMPG) to analyze the dropout crisis in the city, and understand the needs of the overage and under-credited (OA/UC) high school student population-the students most at risk for dropping out. This analysis led to the development of a differentiated portfolio of educational models designed to bring these students to New York State graduation standards and prepare them for meaningful post-secondary opportunities.

The Office of Multiple Pathways to Graduation developed a comprehensive strategic plan with financial support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and analytic support from the Boston-based Parthenon Group. The resulting dataset, representing an unprecedented examination of student experience within a school system, has been critical to system transformation grounded in student population needs. Insights gained through this first strategic planning engagement have led to internal and foundation support for continued analysis to inform comprehensive secondary planning.

This report explains more about their process and findings.

Philadelphia

With support from the William Penn Foundation the Philadelphia Youth Transitions Collaborative's Project U-Turn used a unique set of data obtained from the Kids Integrated Data System (KIDS), which is housed at the University of Pennsylvania's Cartographic Modeling Laboratory. The KIDS system merges individual-level data on young people from the School District of Philadelphia and the city's social service agencies, including the Department of Public Health, the Department of Human Services, and the Office of Emergency Shelter and Services. The resulting data allows cohorts of students to be followed over multiple years, examining their educational outcomes as well as the predictors of graduation and dropout.

For more information go to Project U-Turn. To read their report go here.

Portland

Portland's research looked at data for the Portland Public Schools Class of 2004 as it moved through high school to expected graduation in June 2004. The study was undertaken as the basis for determining how to implement support effectively to increase the number of students who graduate from high school. The research focused on learning what indicators best predict which students are at risk for failing to graduate and determining when, by year and quarter, students are most likely to disengage from school.

The study examined the PPS Class of 2004 as a cohort, tracing their longitudinal progress on a student-by-student basis. The analytic technique used to track students was adapted for sociological research from survival analysis as originally developed by medical researchers. This approach permits the researcher to focus on individual students' level of risk, defined in terms of whether they will graduate, as it varies at each quarter from the beginning of 9th grade through expected time of graduation (in this case, June 2004). Using this methodology to analyze multiple years of longitudinal data on every student in the cohort yields clear evidence of significant patterns of behavior, and thus reveals accurate predictors for determining which students are at risk for not graduating. It also indicates what the best timing is for implementing successful interventions to support these students.

For more information go to Connected By 25. To read their report go here.

Boston

In the last ten years Boston's schools have improved dramatically, but the drop out rate remained unacceptably high. Like other cities successfully creating Multiple Pathways to Graduation, Boston's first step was segmenting their student population to better understand which student's were dropping out. In conjunction with The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Jobs for the Future, and The Parthenon Group, the district commissioned a study to develop a data-driven, citywide strategy to reduce the dropout rate and increase the graduation rate. Findings from the study Strategic Planning to Serve Off-Track Youth: Review and Strategic Implications have provided an unprecedented understanding of Boston's off-track youth, providing valuable data to inform the expansion and development of educational programming to meet the needs of all students. Based on this study, Boston found four predictors that count for 75 percent of their dropout population. They are:

1. Students with one or more eighth grade "risk factors"
2. Students with multiple ninth grade core course failures
3. Substantially separate special education students
4. Late entrant ELL students

1. Over 80% of students that dropout out do so in the third year of high school or later.
2. Based on course performance, small schools tend to over-perform.
3. Although there are nearly 13,000 students off-track (in and out of school), there are only about 1,000 seats in alternative education. Furthermore, the average graduation rate of the alternative schools (called "specialized schools" in Boston) is only 19% (partially due to the low performance of the largest alternative school). Alternative schools also receive lower levels of funding than other small schools.

1. Emphasizing a city-wide and pre-school through college approach to reforms
2. Strengthening support for students with special needs like late entrant English language learners, and students who are overage and/or off-track academically
3. Determining how to best use facilities to accommodate schools and educational programs
4. Clarify roles and responsibilities of district offices and leadership to increase accountability
5. Aligning services provided by schools, and private and public agencies
6. Improving the collection and monitoring of data

Asking Questions to Guide the Process

Implementing a multiple pathways to graduation reform process is not a one-size-fits-all undertaking. Any district beginning the process will want to design a segmentation analysis that addresses the specific needs and concerns of their students and schools. Cities that have done the segmentation have found answering the following questions helpful:

What do we know about the students that enter 9th grade-and what happens to them?

• How many 8th graders never even enroll in 9th grade?
• What are the middle school characteristics of entering 9th graders-e.g.: proficiency test scores, GPA, number of courses failed, attendance, number of grade retentions, number of suspensions, number of schools attended?
• What percent of students in a cohort graduated in four, five, six, and seven years?
• What is the dropout rate? What is the annual rate and cohort rate?
• What is the "age-out" rate? How many students stay in school for four or more years but do not graduate?
• What is the recovery rate? How many students dropped out and later received a diploma? How many received a GED?

• Are there strong predictors of who will not graduate based on middle school information? Look at: 7th and 8th grade test scores, GPA, number of courses failed in 8th grade, average daily attendance in 8th grade, number of grade retentions, number of suspensions, and number of schools attended.
• What is the strongest indicator in high school that predicts whether a student graduates? Consider: age at entrance into high school, failing a course(s), GPA, attendance, suspension, and school mobility.

• What is the recuperation rate, i.e. of all the students that graduate, how many were ever off-track?
• Of all the students that did not graduate, how many were ever off-track?
• Of all the students that enter school how many become off-track to graduation?
• Of those that become off-track, how many graduate in four, five, and six years?
• What are the differences between those students that stay on track and those that fall off-track? Break this data down by demographics, academic and connection to school indicators.
• What happens to students that become off-track to graduation?
• Of all the students that enter school how many become off-track in 9th, 10th, 11th grade? When do they drop out?
• How do their academic skills influence the degree that off-track students will graduate?
• Are some students that become off-track more likely to graduate? Break this data down by demographics, academics, and connection to school indicators.

• When do they leave school? And with how many credits? Is there any variation based on instructional needs or demographics?
• Based on this analysis, what are the characteristics of students that dropout in 9th and 10th grade as compared to those dropping out in 11th and 12th grades?
• How many students drop out in 12th grade with more than 90% of their credits?
• How many re-enroll and eventually get a diploma? Get a GED?
• What are characteristics when they dropout-skill, credits, age, number of years in school
• How many go to a transfer school? How many times do they change high schools?

• Which schools have higher grade promotion and graduation rates than average for the lowest achieving segments of students? Compare the types of schools (comprehensive, small, transfer), and compare within types of schools.
• Which schools have higher leading indicators (better leading indicators, kids who are off-track getting more credits) than average for the lowest achieving segments of students such as on-track indicator, credit accumulation, and attendance? Compare types of schools (comprehensive, small, transfer) and compare within types of schools
• Which schools accept transfer students (kids who have dropped out, been expelled, or been incarcerated), and how do they compare on the leading indicators and graduation rates?

Additional Resources

The Consortium on Chicago School Research conducts research of high technical quality that can inform and assess policy and practice in the Chicago Public Schools. See their publication What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in Chicago Public Schools